Wednesday, 28 November 2012

Portfolio Update November 2012

Another update to talk my own book on my current personal positions and the why I hold them. I like to think of my portfolio as a way to outperform cash so Im looking for total returns and the key is capital preservation.

SBRY: I topped up some SBRY in June which was a great decision. Since then the stock as gone vertical up 60p to £3.50. Sainsburys is way ahead of Tesco in terms of store quality and home delivery and its outperforming both Tesco and Morrisons. It now looks fairly valued to me unless bid rumours start to resurface but Ill continue to collect my healthy dividend yield and reinvest.

Pandora A/S: I sold out of this completely a few months back around the 80DKK mark. I am of course gutted to see it now trading up at 118DKK which would have been a 200% return rather than the 60-100% return I saw on my sales. Still one can’t be too greedy.

RSA: This stock still just looks cheap to me as it’s a good franchise, internationally diversified and it throws off cash. Dividend yield looks fantastic and is much better than this renewed wave of buy-to-let for income optimism since the yield on RSA is better and one can sell a stock in an instant with no material fees. The UK fetish for all things property continues unabated however.

BBd/B: This stock has continued to languish below $CAD  4 per share which is a shame. Hence I’m nursing a loss here but this still looks like a solid industrial to me which actually makes things that people, companies and governments need. So much so that I bought some more shares around the $CAD  3.3 mark this month. It has continued to decline until yesterday when a massive new order for small jets was announced setting off an 8% rally.  At 7x forward P/E this looks too cheap to me.

ABX: I bought into Barrick Gold during July at $36 and $33 per share because it frankly looked very cheap for a mega cap miner albeit it one suffering from a lack of momentum in the gold price. Since then the stock was doing well but realtively poor results in Q3 caused a significant drop. Im around break even here but I still think it looks cheap albeit not ridiculously so. I continue to like its exposure to gold as most of the mines are in locations which are not politically dangerous or difficult (mines in Nevada rather than South Africa).

FGP: I bought some FirstGroup shares the day after their bid on the west coast mainline was cancelled. I take the view that not winning that bid was a good thing as they had overpaid. It looks to me like it could easily pickup a bit from here with bad news priced in but not my idea of long term fundamental holding. Currently it just lacks a catalyst to see it rerate toward sector peers.

MAYG: I bought shares in May Gurney after their profit warning in September as the stock looked cheap at 4x fwd P/E (it still does; 6x fwd P/E with a 5% yield) with low financial leverage and the bad news seemed well priced in. An intraday drop of >40% seemed like an overreaction to what was basically some poor management decisions. I bought into the shares at £1.32 and £1.20. I sold all my shares this month for a tidy 27% profit at £1.60. I was a bit early as they rallied as high as £1.77 but again to my mind this isn’t a great company it just had an oversold valuation.

Performance has been down a bit with the market and ABX suffering and I’m measuring on a period of around 18 months since April 2011 during which time my total return has been 20.3% to date. My only realised loss was 6% on a short platinum ETF. I have had a dividend yield of 1.73%, realised gains of 20.4% and unrealised losses are currently 1.9% overall. The biggest contributor to my returns has been Pandora where I saw gains of more than 65% overall across my sales.

Current unrealised gains:


Current unrealised losses:

ABX, BBd/B and FGP

Caveat: Clearly I have a financial interest in these investments and this post relates solely to my personal investment positions. It is in no way a solicitation to buy or sell these investments nor does it constitute advice to do so.

No comments:

Post a Comment