Friday, 10 February 2012

Greece is doomed and irrelevant


"Through the loan package and bond swap, Greece’s lenders are trying to lower the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 120 per cent by 2020."

- FT

No really this is the best possible outcome of 8 more years of Greek deflationary austerity! Given the muted moves in the market I think nobody really cares anymore. We have become bored and therefore immunized from news on the fate of Greece.

It is obvious really that
(a)    Greece has an unsustainable debt burden based on any given measure and it always did way before the Troika got started (see Argentina 2001)
(b)   Greece has weak and corrupt institutions which are incapable of implementing reforms (see Argentina 2001)
(c)    Greece has no means to adjust is trade deficit with the rest of the EU within the euro fixed FX regime which means it has no way to restore competitiveness except through endless deflationary austerity (see Argentina 2001)
(d)   The Greek people can no longer take endless deflationary austerity (see Argentina 2001)
(e)    The rest of Europe no longer believes it is worth pouring more money down this bottomless pit

In the end Greece will default and it is not a matter of if but a matter of how soon. It will also have to exit the euro to restore competitiveness. But since everybody knows this (but Brussels PR wont say it) it is no longer a market moving observation.

The upside is that after their deflationary euro exit they can readjust the economy and get excellent foreign currency inflows by becoming what they always were; a great place for cheap and sunny holidays.

The country will be awash with Germans but they wont be technocrats or troops they will be plum coloured pensioners.

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